Dinars now trading on the ForEx
Jan 24, 2011
I received this report today. I'm not sure who wrote it, but it was NOT me:
A unique occurrence happened last week. The IQD, which has been static on ForEx, miraculously went live today. This means it is being traded internationally by ForEx houses across the world. Rather than being updated at the static rate of 1170:$1, it is updating every few seconds, just like every other currency, meaning it is being traded live. Here is a link to one of the major ForEx trading charts, make sure you click on the refresh button, if your browser does not update it automatically.
This means either one of two things, to me. Medic, Frank, Nighthawk and all the other "educated" (I use that term loosely) dinar people were shocked by this occurrence, it was unexpected. They believe that the RV, thus, is imminent because banks are trading their stocks of dinar now (removing 3 0's, as they get back to Iraq). It implies that the ForEx people know something we don't know. The other option is one that is not popular (in fact, I'm the only one who's ever had this opinion), that the IQD could be placed on ForEx and allow the market to drive up the rate (removing 3 0's as it gets back to Iraq). While this is a possibility, I do not think it would be Iraq's interest to do so, because without an ERM (which requires a declared international value) in place, the rate can skyrocket (or nosedive) on a day to day basis, similar to what happened with the Kuwaiti dinar. It is in Iraq's best interest to set the rate (at whatever they will) and allow the ERM to pure float the dinar at the ceiling/floor thresholds (for most currencies this is 4% either way, up or down, in a 24 hour period of trading.)
Either way, the rate will go up exponentially based on the speculation. For any of this to occur, to me, precludes that the CBI has stopped auctioning the dinar (i.e., dirty floating the rate at 1170) and has allowed the dinar to go to a pure float, or will in the immediate future. I am eager to see what the CBI does when it opens on Sunday. It would, to me, imply an RV this weekend, again no one knows for sure, but what is the logical conclusion of allowing the dinar to trade freely? To me, this means the ForEx houses are anticipating the dinar to be traded internationally by people like you and me, and they are currency swapping on these small pips in that anticipation. This could also be a tactic of the CBI to further remove the large denoms in a staged manner -- still meaning an RV is nearly upon us. This is not something the CBI could allow for months, not even weeks, maybe a matter of days. The value of the dinar could not be kept under with a pure float, and it costs Iraq too much to purchase the dinar back under a dirty float -- they lose thousands of dollars at every auction by keeping the dinar "stable" at 1170:$1. So with a free-for-all in the ForEx houses, Iraq could virtually lose control of the dinar's value in a matter of days, without declaring a value and an ERM. Further logical assumption that they plan to RV, not allow the currency to be completely market driven, unless, of course, they declare the value at 1170 -- which every article from the Ministry of Finance said would be absurd, requiring at least a 1:1 exchange (we get a buck for every dinar, in other words.)
Concerning the GOI, the budget is moot at this point. The government is more concerned that the people are beginning to riot, there is an increase in violence, bombings, bloodshed, that Sadr will not be able to hold back. Parliament stripped certain powers from Maliki today, namely his ability to name the security people, and it appears that Parliament now has control over this. Barzani, the President of Kurdistan, is in Baghdad to oversee the security situation -- to me, a huge slap in the face for Maliki. This was at the request of Joe Biden. We have seen two articles that Parliament is calling an emergency session to address this. However, it doesn't say when. We assume either Saturday or Sunday. To me, one of two things will happen: one, the Parliament will overrule Maliki and place the security positions themselves (thereby stripping Maliki of most of his powers and making him a political figurehead, a "scapegoat") or two, they will vote "no confidence" in Maliki and throw him out entirely. Allawi has said if that was to occur, he will leave the vast majority of the cabinet in place and will have his government seated in 24-28 hours. According to his website, his first order of business before anything else is to revalue the Iraqi dinar and begin reconstruction. They are attempting to head off a coup here.
If they do not call an emergency session, then they will meet at their regular schedule on January 30, and we will see what might happen.
No matter what happens, I maintain an RV will occur by January 31, if not sooner. Remember, Baghdad is hosting the Arab Summit which begins March 2. To go into February without security, without an RV, without even the basics for their people is the height of stupidity, and if there is no civil war, the people of Iraq deserve what happens to them. Personally, I think we'll see Sadr's group hang the "ten people" in the street. But we pray this does not occur, and it doesn't have to, as long as the ten people do their duty before the 30 million.
Dr. Stephen Jones